TC - recent papers

Effects of disturbance on seasonal CO2 dynamics in two boreal forest sites underlain by permafrost

2026-04-13T15:17:41+02:00

Effects of disturbance on seasonal CO2 dynamics in two boreal forest sites underlain by permafrost
Dragos A. Vas, Jaimie R. West, David Brodylo, Amanda J. Barker, W. Brad Baxter, and Robyn A. Barbato
The Cryosphere, 20, 2017–2033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2017-2026, 2026
Soil disturbances significantly increase soil temperatures, alter microbial communities, and boost carbon emissions. This can accelerate permafrost degradation, affecting the climate. Disturbances change the relationships between temperature, moisture, and carbon emissions, leading to higher emissions. Understanding these changes is crucial for modeling carbon cycles and mitigating the impacts of soil disturbances on the environment.

Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+)

2026-04-13T15:17:41+02:00

Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+)
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026
The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.

A thinner-than-present West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the southern Weddell Sea Embayment during the Holocene

2026-04-13T15:17:41+02:00

A thinner-than-present West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the southern Weddell Sea Embayment during the Holocene
David Small, Réka-H. Fülöp, Rachel K. Smedley, Thomas Lees, Stephan Trabucatti, Derek Fabel, Maria Miguens-Rodriguez, Andrew M. Smith, and Grant V. Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 20, 2035–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2035-2026, 2026
We collected bedrock currently buried by tens of metres of ice from a site in the Weddell Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. Models suggest that the ice sheet here may have been smaller than it is today at some time during the last few thousand years. The presence of rare isotopes in this bedrock requires that ice became thinner before rethickening to its present-day configuration. This fluctuation in the size of the ice sheet occurred within the last ~4000 years and may have lasted only 300 years.

Stochastic modelling of thermokarst lakes: size distributions and dynamic regimes

2026-04-10T15:17:41+02:00

Stochastic modelling of thermokarst lakes: size distributions and dynamic regimes
Constanze Reinken, Victor Brovkin, Philipp de Vrese, Ingmar Nitze, Helena Bergstedt, and Guido Grosse
The Cryosphere, 20, 1967–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1967-2026, 2026
Thermokarst lakes are dynamic features of ice-rich permafrost landscapes, altering energy, water and carbon cycles, but have so far mostly been modeled on site-level scale. A deterministic modelling approach would be challenging on larger scales due to the lack of extensive high-resolution data of sub-surface conditions. We therefore develop a conceptual stochastic model of thermokarst lake dynamics that treats the involved processes as probabilistic.

Effects of subgrid-scale ice topography on the ice shelf basal melting simulated in NEMO-4.2.0

2026-04-10T15:17:41+02:00

Effects of subgrid-scale ice topography on the ice shelf basal melting simulated in NEMO-4.2.0
Dorothée Vallot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 20, 1997–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1997-2026, 2026
Some recent studies show that the topography at the base of an ice shelf has consequences for its interaction with the ocean. To describe friction velocity in the melt parameterisation, we use a drag coefficient dependent on the distance of the first wet cell to the ice and the basal topography rather than a fixed-tuned parameter. We find that it is less dependent on the choice of vertical resolution and, while providing similar total melt, it gives more weight to highly crevassed areas.

Investigating the impact of sub-ice shelf melt on Antarctic ice sheet spin-up and projections

2026-04-07T15:17:41+02:00

Investigating the impact of sub-ice shelf melt on Antarctic ice sheet spin-up and projections
Fan Gao, Qiang Shen, Hansheng Wang, Tong Zhang, Liming Jiang, Yan Liu, C. K. Shum, Yan An, and Xu Zhang
The Cryosphere, 20, 1947–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026, 2026
Basal ice-shelf melting critically impacts Antarctic ice sheet evolution. Our testing of two melting schemes showed starkly diverging projections despite near-identical initial states, especially for West Antarctica. By 2100, the predicted sea-level contributions differed by 57%. Initial setup changes hidden sub-ice properties (e.g., friction, temperature), modifying ice flow. Accurately representing melt and refining setup are thus essential to reduce projections uncertainty.

Southwest Greenland supraglacial lake bathymetry derived from ICESat-2 and spectral stratification of satellite imagery

2026-04-02T15:17:41+02:00

Southwest Greenland supraglacial lake bathymetry derived from ICESat-2 and spectral stratification of satellite imagery
Jinhao Lv, Chunchun Gao, Chao Qi, Shaoyu Li, Dianpeng Su, Kai Zhang, and Fanlin Yang
The Cryosphere, 20, 1929–1945, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1929-2026, 2026
This study integrates ICESat-2 observations with multispectral imagery to estimate supraglacial lake depths on the Greenland Ice Sheet using satellite-derived bathymetry (SDB). By accounting for depth-dependent reflectance variations, we apply spectral stratification to improve SDB inversion accuracy. Owing to its low cost, strong spatiotemporal coverage, and enhanced accuracy, this approach provides valuable insights for monitoring supraglacial lake water depths.

DCG-MIP: the Debris-Covered Glacier melt Model Intercomparison exPeriment

2026-04-02T15:17:41+02:00

DCG-MIP: the Debris-Covered Glacier melt Model Intercomparison exPeriment
Francesca Pellicciotti, Adrià Fontrodona-Bach, David R. Rounce, Catriona L. Fyffe, Leif S. Anderson, Álvaro Ayala, Ben W. Brock, Pascal Buri, Stefan Fugger, Koji Fujita, Prateek Gantayat, Alexander R. Groos, Walter Immerzeel, Marin Kneib, Christoph Mayer, Shelley MacDonell, Michael McCarthy, James McPhee, Evan Miles, Heather Purdie, Ekaterina Rets, Akiko Sakai, Thomas E. Shaw, Jakob Steiner, Patrick Wagnon, and Alex Winter-Billington
The Cryosphere, 20, 1895–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1895-2026, 2026
Rock debris covers many of the world glaciers, modifying the transfer of atmospheric energy to the debris and into the ice. Models of different complexity simulate this process, and we compare 15 models at 9 sites to show that the most complex models at the debris-atmosphere interface have the highest performance. However, we lack debris properties and their derivation from measurements is ambiguous, hindering global modelling and calling for both model development and data collection.

Past and future changes in avalanche problems in northern Norway estimated with machine-learning models

2026-04-01T15:17:41+02:00

Past and future changes in avalanche problems in northern Norway estimated with machine-learning models
Kai-Uwe Eiselt and Rune Grand Graversen
The Cryosphere, 20, 1867–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1867-2026, 2026
We train machine-learning models to predict avalanche problems from meteorological and snow-cover data in northern Norway. A major part of the work is the estimation of avalanche-problem changes throughout the 21st century based on future climate projections. We find that while the avalanche danger generally declines towards 2100, the avalanche characteristics will likely change, meaning fewer dry but more wet avalanches, having potential implications for the avalanche-danger forecast quality.

Challenges in identifying Antarctic coastal polynyas in satellite observations and climate model output to support ecological climate change research

2026-03-30T15:17:41+02:00

Challenges in identifying Antarctic coastal polynyas in satellite observations and climate model output to support ecological climate change research
Laura L. Landrum, Alice K. DuVivier, Marika M. Holland, Kristen Krumhardt, and Zephyr Sylvester
The Cryosphere, 20, 1815–1840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1815-2026, 2026
Antarctic polynyas – areas of open water surrounded by sea ice or sea ice and land – are key players in Antarctic marine ecosystems. Changes in the physical characteristics of polynyas will influence how these ecosystems respond to a changing climate. This work explores how to best compare polynyas identified in satellite data products and climate model data to verify that the model captures important features of Antarctic sea ice and marine ecosystems.

Physics-constrained generative machine learning-based high-resolution downscaling of Greenland's surface mass balance and surface temperature

2026-03-30T15:17:41+02:00

Physics-constrained generative machine learning-based high-resolution downscaling of Greenland's surface mass balance and surface temperature
Nils Bochow, Philipp Hess, and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 20, 1841–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1841-2026, 2026
This study presents a fast, physics-guided machine-learning method that downscales coarse climate fields to fine resolution while enforcing conservation of large-scale totals. Trained on regional climate simulations and driven by Earth system model output, it handles extremes and outperforms linear interpolation, providing realistic, high-resolution forcing for ice-sheet models and improving projections of Greenland’s sea-level contribution.

The terrestrial ice margin morphology in Kalaallit Nunaat (Greenland)

2026-03-25T15:17:41+01:00

The terrestrial ice margin morphology in Kalaallit Nunaat (Greenland)
Jakob Steiner, Jakob Abermann, and Rainer Prinz
The Cryosphere, 20, 1797–1814, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1797-2026, 2026
Nearly 95% of the Greenland ice margin ends on land, where meltwater leaves the ice to supply surrounding ecosystems. Here we show that nearly 30% of this land-terminating margin ends in extremely steep, often vertical sections, previously only described in individual locations. Less than 20% are shallow ramps. Knowledge of these margin shapes and their locations allows us to further investigate what they can potentially tell us about the current ice sheet health and its future evolution.

Beyond MAGT: learning more from permafrost thermal monitoring data with additional metrics

2026-03-25T15:17:41+01:00

Beyond MAGT: learning more from permafrost thermal monitoring data with additional metrics
Nicholas Brown and Stephan Gruber
The Cryosphere, 20, 1771–1796, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1771-2026, 2026
This study improves how we track changes in permafrost by testing new ways to use ground temperature data. A set of five simple but powerful metrics was found to give a clearer picture of thawing than current methods. The results also show that the depth where sensors are placed can strongly affect measured warming rates. These findings help make permafrost monitoring more accurate and support better planning for a changing climate.

Assessment of Sentinel-3 altimeter performance over Antarctica using high resolution digital elevation models

2026-03-24T15:17:41+01:00

Assessment of Sentinel-3 altimeter performance over Antarctica using high resolution digital elevation models
Joe Phillips and Malcolm McMillan
The Cryosphere, 20, 1745–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1745-2026, 2026
This study explores how well the Sentinel-3 satellites measure Antarctic ice sheet elevation, using new detailed maps of slopes and roughness created using the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica. We found that while the satellites tend to perform well over smoother terrain, they can struggle over more complex surfaces. These findings can improve how we track ice sheet changes and guide future satellite missions, helping us better understand the impact of climate change on polar regions.

Outlet glacier seasonal terminus prediction using interpretable machine learning

2026-03-24T15:17:41+01:00

Outlet glacier seasonal terminus prediction using interpretable machine learning
Kevin Shionalyn, Ginny Catania, Daniel T. Trugman, Michael G. Shahin, Leigh A. Stearns, and Denis Felikson
The Cryosphere, 20, 1725–1744, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1725-2026, 2026
The ocean-facing front of a glacier changes with the seasons. We know this cycle is controlled by the shape and speed of the glacier as well as by the climate, but we do not have a full understanding of these processes. Our study uses 20 years of data and a machine learning model to predict this pattern and identifies which factors matter most. We find that while several factors influence the seasonal cycle, the shape of the glacier plays a key role in how much a glacier changes annually.

Active subglacial lakes in the Canadian Arctic identified by multi-annual ice elevation changes

2026-03-23T15:17:41+01:00

Active subglacial lakes in the Canadian Arctic identified by multi-annual ice elevation changes
Whyjay Zheng, Wesley Van Wychen, Tian Li, and Tsutomu Yamanokuchi
The Cryosphere, 20, 1699–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1699-2026, 2026
We identify lakes beneath the glaciers in the Canadian Arctic using satellite measurements over a decade, increasing the number of known subglacial lakes in this area from 2 to 37. These lakes are recharged by billions of cubic meters of water, and the draining of these lakes can lower the ice elevation by more than 100 m. We find three types of subglacial lakes, two of which are primarily located in the Canadian Arctic. When glaciers lose their ice quickly, these lakes become active.

A remote sensing approach for measuring climatic change effects on snow cover dynamics

2026-03-23T15:17:41+01:00

A remote sensing approach for measuring climatic change effects on snow cover dynamics
Francesco Parizia, Samuele De Petris, Luigi Perotti, Marco Giardino, and Enrico Borgogno-Mondino
The Cryosphere, 20, 1715–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1715-2026, 2026
This study introduces innovative methods in cryospheric research by mapping and quantifying multi-decadal snow cover changes in the Western Alps using remote sensing. The normalized trend (nT) index offers a novel metric for analyzing annual mean snow events. This enables intensity analysis of climate change impacts on snow dynamics, highlighting critical vulnerabilities in water management and regional economic systems.

Glacier surge activity over Svalbard from 1992 to 2025 interpreted using heritage satellite radar missions and Sentinel-1

2026-03-23T15:17:41+01:00

Glacier surge activity over Svalbard from 1992 to 2025 interpreted using heritage satellite radar missions and Sentinel-1
Tazio Strozzi, Erik Schytt Mannerfelt, Oliver Cartus, Maurizio Santoro, Thomas Schellenberger, and Andreas Kääb
The Cryosphere, 20, 1679–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1679-2026, 2026
By analysing 30 years of satellite SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data, we have found that the number of glacier surges over Svalbard has tripled since 2015. We show that this increase is unlikely to be explained solely by improvements in data quality or by random fluctuations in surge frequency, suggesting that this trend is caused by an external forcing mechanism. Given our incomplete understanding of surge initiation, the cause of the observed threefold increase remains however uncertain.

How to model crevasse initiation? Lessons from the artificial drainage of a water-filled cavity on the Tête Rousse Glacier (Mont Blanc range, France)

2026-03-20T15:17:41+01:00

How to model crevasse initiation? Lessons from the artificial drainage of a water-filled cavity on the Tête Rousse Glacier (Mont Blanc range, France)
Julien Brondex, Olivier Gagliardini, Adrien Gilbert, and Emmanuel Thibert
The Cryosphere, 20, 1655–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1655-2026, 2026
We investigate crevasse initiation by analyzing the artificial drainage of a water-filled cavity at Tête Rousse Glacier (Mont Blanc, France). Using a numerical model, we compute stress fields in response to water level variations in the cavity and compare them to observed crevasse patterns. Results show that a non-linear viscous rheology and a maximum principal stress criterion (with a stress threshold of 100–130 kPa) best predict crevasse occurrence.

In situ monitoring of seasonally frozen ground using soil freezing characteristic curve in permittivity–temperature space

2026-03-19T15:17:41+01:00

In situ monitoring of seasonally frozen ground using soil freezing characteristic curve in permittivity–temperature space
Hesam Salmabadi, Renato Pardo Lara, Aaron Berg, Alex Mavrovic, Chelene Hanes, Benoit Montpetit, and Alexandre Roy
The Cryosphere, 20, 1635–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1635-2026, 2026
Current satellite monitoring often oversimplifies soil freezing by assuming it happens exactly at 0°C. We analyzed ground data across Canada and found that soil often stays in a partially frozen state for months, even when air temperatures are well below freezing, revealing a major gap in how we track seasonally frozen ground.