Globally consistent estimates of high-resolution Antarctic ice mass balance and spatially-resolved glacial isostatic adjustment

Abstract. A detailed understanding of how the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) responds to a warming climate is needed because it will most likely increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. Time-variable satellite gravimetry, realized by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions, is directly sensitive to AIS mass changes. However, gravimetric mass balances are subject to two major limitations: First, the usual correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect by modelling results is a dominant source of uncertainty. Second, satellite gravimetry allows for a resolution of a few hundred kilometres only, which is insufficient to thoroughly explore causes of AIS imbalance. We have overcome both limitations by the first global inversion of data from GRACE/GRACE-FO, satellite altimetry (CryoSat-2), regional climate modelling (RACMO2), and firn densification modelling (IMAU-FDM). The inversion spatially resolves GIA in Antarctica independently from GIA modelling jointly with changes of ice mass and firn air content at 50 km resolution. We find an AIS mass balance of -144 ± 27 Gt a^-1 from Jan 2011 to Dec 2020. This estimate is the same, within uncertainties, as the statistical analysis of 23 different mass balances evaluated in IMBIE. The co-estimated GIA corresponds to an integrated mass effect of 86 ± 21 Gt a^-1 over Antarctica and it fits better with GNSS results than other GIA predictions. From propagating covariances to integrals, we find a correlation coefficient of -0.97 between the AIS mass balance and the GIA estimate. Sensitivity tests with alternative input data sets lead to results within assessed uncertainties.