Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-175
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-175

  21 Jun 2021

21 Jun 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal TC.

Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea-level

Andy Aschwanden1,, Timothy C. Bartholomaus2,, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff3,, and Martin Truffer1, Andy Aschwanden et al.
  • 1Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks. Fairbanks, Alaska. USA
  • 2Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho. Moscow, Idaho. USA
  • 3Department of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
  • These authors contributed equally to this work.

Abstract. Accurately projecting mass loss from ice sheets is of critical societal importance. However, despite recent improvements in ice sheet models, our analysis of a recent effort to project Greenland's contribution to future sea-level suggests that few models reproduce historical mass loss accurately, and that they appear much too confident in the spread of predicted outcomes. The inability of models to reproduce historical observations raises concerns about the models' skill at projecting mass loss. Here we suggest that the future sea level contribution from Greenland may well be significantly higher than reported in that study. We propose a roadmap to enable a more realistic accounting of uncertainties associated with such forecasts, and a formal process by which observations of mass change be used to refine projections of mass change. Finally, we note that tremendous government investment and planning affecting 10s to 100s of millions of people is founded on the work of several tens of scientists involved in a significantly volunteer effort. To achieve the goal of credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea-level, we strongly believe that investment in research must be commensurate with the scale of the challenge.

Andy Aschwanden et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Andrew Shepherd, 12 Jul 2021
    • AC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Andy Aschwanden, 27 Aug 2021
  • RC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Alexander Robel, 22 Jul 2021
    • AC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Andy Aschwanden, 27 Aug 2021
  • CC2: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Sophie Nowicki, 03 Aug 2021
    • AC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Andy Aschwanden, 27 Aug 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Nicolas Jourdain, 24 Aug 2021
    • AC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Andy Aschwanden, 27 Aug 2021
  • EC1: 'Editor assessment on tc-2021-175', Olaf Eisen, 25 Aug 2021
    • AC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Andy Aschwanden, 27 Aug 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on EC1', Andy Aschwanden, 06 Oct 2021
  • AC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-175', Andy Aschwanden, 27 Aug 2021

Andy Aschwanden et al.

Andy Aschwanden et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 1,543 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,049 474 20 1,543 6 8
  • HTML: 1,049
  • PDF: 474
  • XML: 20
  • Total: 1,543
  • BibTeX: 6
  • EndNote: 8
Views and downloads (calculated since 21 Jun 2021)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 21 Jun 2021)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,475 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,475 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Latest update: 25 Oct 2021
Download
Short summary
Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland will contribute to sea-level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.