18 Feb 2021

18 Feb 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal TC.

Edge displacement scores

Arne Melsom Arne Melsom
  • Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Abstract. As a consequence of a diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic, activity is on the rise. The position of the sea ice edge, which is generally taken to define the extent of the ice cover, changes in response to dynamic and thermodynamic processes. Forecasts for sea ice expansion due to an advancing ice edge will provide information that can be of significance for operations in polar regions. However, the value of this information depends on the quality of the forecasts. Here, we present methods for examining the quality of forecasted sea ice expansion and the geographic location where the largest expansion are expected from the forecast results. The algorithm is simple to implement, and an examination of two years of model results and accompanying observations demonstrates the usefulness of the analysis.

Arne Melsom

Status: open (until 15 Apr 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Arne Melsom

Data sets

SVIM ocean hindcast archive Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Institute of Marine Research

Model code and software

Edge metrics software v.1.0 Arne Melsom

Arne Melsom


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Short summary
This study presents new methods to assess how well observations of sea ice expansion are reproduced by results from models. The aim is to provide information about the quality of forecasts for changes in the sea ice cover to operators in or near ice infested waters. A test using two years' model results demonstrates the practical applicability and usefulness of the methods that are presented.