An improved sea ice detection algorithm using MODIS: application as a new European sea ice extent indicator

Abstract. The continued loss of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere due to global warming poses a threat on biota and human activities, evidencing the necessity of efficient sea ice monitoring tools. Aiming at the creation of an improved European sea ice extent indicator, the IceMap250 algorithm has been reworked to generate improved sea ice extent maps at 500 m resolution at nadir. Changes in the classification approach and a new method to correct artefacts arising from the MODIS cloud mask allow the enlargement of the mapped area, the reduction of potential error sources and a qualitative improvement of the resulting maps, while systematically achieving accuracies above 90 %. Monthly sea ice extent maps have been derived using a new synthesis method which acts as an additional error filter. Our results, covering the months of maximum (March) and minimum (September) sea ice extent during two decades (from 2000 to 2019), are a proof of the algorithm's applicability as an indicator, illustrating the sea ice decline in the European regional seas. We observed no significant trends in the Baltic (−2.75 ± 2.05 × 10³ km² yr⁻¹) although, on the contrary, the European Arctic seas display clear negative trends both in March (−27.98 ± 6.01 × 10³ km² yr⁻¹) and September (−16.47 ± 5.66 × 10³ km² yr⁻¹). Such trends indicate that the sea ice cover in March and September is shrinking at a rate of ∼9 % and ∼13 % per decade, respectively, even though the sea ice extent loss is comparatively ∼70 % greater in March. Therefore, according to the trends and without taking into account the variability of the sea ice cover, the loss of sea ice extent over two decades in the study area would be comparable to the area of continental France in the case of the March maximum, and to that of Finland in the case of the September minimum.