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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">TCD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>The Cryosphere Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">TCD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">The Cryosphere Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1994-0440</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/tc-2020-331</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Higher mass loss over Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets projected in CMIP6 than CMIP5 by high resolution regional
downscaling EC-Earth</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Boberg</surname>
<given-names>Fredrik</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mottram</surname>
<given-names>Ruth</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1016-1997</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hansen</surname>
<given-names>Nicolaj</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4448-8891</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Shuting</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0147-2056</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Langen</surname>
<given-names>Peter L.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2185-012X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Ø, DK-2100, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>National Space Institute, Kongens Lyngby, DK-2800, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>iClimate, Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, DK-4000, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2020</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>25</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2020 Fredrik Boberg et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-331/">This article is available from https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-331/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-331/tc-2020-331.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-331/tc-2020-331.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;p&gt;The future rates of ice sheet melt in Greenland and Antarctica are an important factor when making estimates of the likely rate of sea level rise. Global climate models that took part in the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have generally been unable to replicate observed rates of ice sheet melt. With the advent of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with a general increase in the equilibrium climate sensitivity, we here compare two versions of the global climate model EC-Earth using the regional climate model HIRHAM5 downscaling EC-Earth for Greenland and Antarctica. One version (v2) of EC-Earth is taken from CMIP5 for the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario and the other (v3) from CMIP6 for the comparable high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) scenario). For Greenland, we downscale the two versions of EC-Earth for the historical period 1991&amp;ndash;2010 and for the scenario period 2081&amp;ndash;2100. For Antarctica, the periods are 1971&amp;ndash;2000 and 2071&amp;ndash;2100, respectively. For the Greenland Ice Sheet, we find that the mean change in temperature is 5.9&amp;thinsp;°C when downscaling EC-Earth v2 and 6.8&amp;thinsp;°C when downscaling EC-Earth v3. Corresponding values for Antarctica are 4.1&amp;thinsp;°C for v2 and 4.9&amp;thinsp;°C for v3. The mean change in surface mass balance at the end of the century under these high emissions scenarios is found to be &amp;minus;210&amp;thinsp;Gt&amp;thinsp;yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; (v2) and &amp;minus;1150&amp;thinsp;Gt&amp;thinsp;yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; (v3) for Greenland and +150&amp;thinsp;Gt&amp;thinsp;yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; (v2) and &amp;minus;710&amp;thinsp;Gt&amp;thinsp;yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; (v3) for Antarctica. These distinct differences in temperature change and particularly surface mass balance change are a result of the higher equilibrium climate sensitivity in EC-Earth v3 (4.3&amp;thinsp;K) compared with 3.3&amp;thinsp;K in EC-Earth v2 and the differences in greenhouse gas concentrations between the RCP8.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.&lt;/p&gt;</p>
</abstract>
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<award-id>776613</award-id>
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<funding-source></funding-source>
<award-id>869304</award-id>
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</front>
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<back>
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