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https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-140
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-140
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  02 Jun 2020

02 Jun 2020

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A revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal TC.

The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 2: projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century

Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
  • Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), UMR8212, CEA/CNRS-INSU/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France

Abstract. Of primary societal importance, the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century remains largely uncertain. In particular, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 ranges from a few millimetres to more than one metre in the recent literature. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 aimed at reducing the uncertainties on the fate of the ice sheets in the future by gathering various ice sheet models in a common framework. While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica. We show that our model is strongly sensitive to the climate forcing used, with a contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise by 2100 that ranges from −50 mm to +150 mm of sea level equivalent. Future oceanic warming leads to a decrease in thickness of the ice shelves and implies grounding line retreats while increased precipitation partially mitigates the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise. Most of ice sheet changes over the next century are dampened under low greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Uncertainties related to sub-shelf basal melt induce large differences in simulated grounding line retreats, confirming the importance of this process and its representation in ice sheet models for the projections of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas

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Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas

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The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica A. Quiquet and C. Dumas https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3819782

Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas

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Latest update: 03 Dec 2020
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Short summary
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Antarctica. The project aims at quantifying the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show that increase precipitation in the future in some cases mitigate this contribution with positive to negative values in 2100 depending of the climate forcing used. Sub-shelf basal melt uncertainties induce large differences in simulated grounding line retreats.
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for...
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