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https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-334
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-334
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  14 Jan 2020

14 Jan 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal TC.

ISMIP6 projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

William H. Lipscomb1, Gunter R. Leguy1, Nicolas C. Jourdain2, Xylar S. Asay-Davis3, Hélène Seroussi4, and Sophie Nowicki5 William H. Lipscomb et al.
  • 1Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 2Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
  • 3Los Alamos National Latoratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
  • 4Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
  • 5NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, ISMIP6 projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution are illustrated using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to nudge the ice thickness toward observed values. The model is then run forward for 500 years, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, including the Amundsen, Filchner-Ronne, and Ross Basins. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and rises steadily over the next several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced SLR at year 2500 varies from about 10 cm to nearly 2 m, depending on the melt scheme and model forcing. Relatively little ice loss is simulated in East Antarctica. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized basal melt rates, missing ocean and ice sheet physics, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

William H. Lipscomb et al.

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William H. Lipscomb et al.

William H. Lipscomb et al.

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Short summary
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies widely, from 10  cm to 2 m of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model...
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