17 Jul 2019
17 Jul 2019
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F
- Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormøhlensgate 47, 5006 Bergen, Norway and the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
- Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormøhlensgate 47, 5006 Bergen, Norway and the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Abstract. The neXtSIM-F forecast system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM, forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation. It was tested for the northern winter of 2018–2019 with different data being assimilated and was found to perform well. Despite drift not being assimilated in our system, we obtain quite good agreement between observations, comparing well to more sophisticated coupled ice-ocean forecast systems. The RMSE in drift speed is around 3 km/day for the first three days, climbing to about 4 km/day for the next day or two; computing the RMSE in the total drift adds about 1 km/day to the error in speed. The drift bias remains close to zero over the whole period from Nov 2018–Apr 2019. The neXtSIM-F forecast system assimilates OSISAF sea ice concentration products (both SSMI and AMSR2) and SMOS sea ice thickness by modifying the initial conditions daily and adding a compensating heat flux to prevent removed ice growing back too quickly. This greatly improved the agreement of these quantities with observations for the first 3–4 days of the forecast.
Timothy Williams et al.
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RC1: 'Review of 'Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F' by Williams et al.', J.-F. Lemieux, 23 Aug 2019
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AC1: 'Reply to 1st reviewer', Timothy Williams, 07 Nov 2020
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AC1: 'Reply to 1st reviewer', Timothy Williams, 07 Nov 2020
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RC2: 'Review of "Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F" by Williams et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 Aug 2019
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AC2: 'Reply to 2nd reviewer', Timothy Williams, 07 Nov 2020
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AC2: 'Reply to 2nd reviewer', Timothy Williams, 07 Nov 2020
Timothy Williams et al.
Timothy Williams et al.
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Cited
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Probabilistic Forecasts of Sea Ice Trajectories in the Arctic: Impact of Uncertainties in Surface Wind and Ice Cohesion S. Cheng et al. 10.3390/oceans1040022
- Circumpolar Thin Arctic Sea Ice Thickness and Small-Scale Roughness Retrieval Using Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity and Soil Moisture Active Passive Observations S. Jo et al. 10.3390/rs11232835