TC The Cryosphere TC The Cryosphere 1994-0424 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/tc-6-613-2012 Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics in Alaska using a high spatial resolution dataset Jafarov E. E. 1 Marchenko S. S. 1 Romanovsky V. E. 1 2 Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen, Russia 04 06 2012 6 3 613 624 Copyright: © 2012 E. E. Jafarov et al. 2012 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/6/613/2012/tc-6-613-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/6/613/2012/tc-6-613-2012.pdf

Climate projections for the 21st century indicate that there could be a pronounced warming and permafrost degradation in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Climate warming is likely to cause permafrost thawing with subsequent effects on surface albedo, hydrology, soil organic matter storage and greenhouse gas emissions. <br><br> To assess possible changes in the permafrost thermal state and active layer thickness, we implemented the GIPL2-MPI transient numerical model for the entire Alaska permafrost domain. The model input parameters are spatial datasets of mean monthly air temperature and precipitation, prescribed thermal properties of the multilayered soil column, and water content that are specific for each soil class and geographical location. As a climate forcing, we used the composite of five IPCC Global Circulation Models that has been downscaled to 2 by 2 km spatial resolution by Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP) group. <br><br> In this paper, we present the modeling results based on input of a five-model composite with A1B carbon emission scenario. The model has been calibrated according to the annual borehole temperature measurements for the State of Alaska. We also performed more detailed calibration for fifteen shallow borehole stations where high quality data are available on daily basis. To validate the model performance, we compared simulated active layer thicknesses with observed data from Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) stations. The calibrated model was used to address possible ground temperature changes for the 21st century. The model simulation results show widespread permafrost degradation in Alaska could begin between 2040–2099 within the vast area southward from the Brooks Range, except for the high altitude regions of the Alaska Range and Wrangell Mountains.

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